Türkiye in the Horn of Africa: A Balancing Act Between Ambition and Responsibility

In recent years, Türkiye has actively pursued a strategy of deepening its influence in the Horn of Africa, a region that has long been a focal point for global powers due to its strategic location, economic potential, and security challenges.

The Horn of Africa, encompassing Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Sudan, lies at the intersection of Africa and the Middle East, with easy access to key maritime routes that are vital for global trade and the movement of goods. Türkiye’s engagement in this region is multifaceted, involving military support, economic investments, humanitarian aid, and cultural diplomacy. These efforts reflect Türkiye’s broader foreign policy objectives of asserting itself as a significant geopolitical player in the global South, competing with traditional Western influence while building stronger ties with emerging powers and regional leaders.

Türkiye’s approach to the Horn of Africa has been characterized by a strategic balance of diplomacy, military engagement, and soft power. The region’s strategic importance make it a vital area for Türkiye to expand its influence. However, Türkiye’s involvement in the region is not without controversy, particularly with regard to its military support for Ethiopia during Tigray’s genocidal war. This aspect of Türkiye’s foreign policy raises questions about its ethical commitments and the long-term implications of its involvement in a war that has been condemned as genocidal. This is a war that has claimed the lives of more than 600,000 Tigrayan civilians , subjected more than 120K Tigrayan women to weaponized rape by Ethiopian forces and its allies, endangered millions to weaponized starvation, and displaced nearly 3 million.

Türkiye’s Military Engagement in the Horn of Africa: A Strategic Pivot
One of the most prominent aspects of Turkey’s engagement in the Horn of Africa is its military presence  and involvement in security issues. The Horn of Africa has long been marked by instability, and Turkey has seized the opportunity to advance its own national security and geopolitical goals.

Turkey’s military presence in Somalia, which began in the 2010s, marked a significant step in the country’s push to enhance its influence in the region. The establishment of a Turkish military base in Mogadishu in 2017 was a landmark moment in Turkey-Somalia relations. The base, which serves as both a training center for Somali forces and a logistical hub, plays a key role in supporting Somalia’s efforts to combat the Al-Shabaab insurgency. Al-Shabaab, an extremist group linked to Al-Qaeda, has been a major source of insecurity in the region. Turkey’s support for Somalia’s security, including the training of Somali military personnel and the provision of arms, has positioned Turkey as a key partner in the fight against terrorism in the region.

Turkey’s military engagement in the Horn of Africa, however, extends beyond Somalia. One of the most controversial aspects of Turkey’s involvement in the region has been its military support for Ethiopia, particularly during the Tigray genocidal war. When the war broke out in November 2020 between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Turkey’s decision to supply drones to the Ethiopian government drew international attention. The Bayraktar TB2 drones, which have become a symbol of Turkey’s growing influence in modern warfare, were used by the Ethiopian military to carry out airstrikes against Tigrayan civilians. These drones are precise and effective, and Turkey’s provision of such technology marked a significant step in deepening its military relationship with Ethiopia.

However, the use of these drones in a war that has resulted in widespread civilian casualties with conclusion that there is a reasonable basis that there was genocide in Tigray raises serious ethical concerns. Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have concluded that the Ethiopian government and its allies, including Eritrean forces, have committed atrocities against civilians, including mass killings, conflict related sexual violence, and the deliberate destruction of Tigray’s infrastructure. Turkey’s involvement in such a war risks undermining its credibility as a responsible global actor. By providing drones to a government accused of war crimes and mass atrocities leading up to genocide, Turkey is complicit in the violations and undermines its reputation as a promoter of peace and stability.

Economic Investments: Building Long-Term Partnerships in the Horn of Africa
In addition to its military involvement, Turkey has been actively pursuing economic opportunities in the Horn of Africa, particularly in countries with large populations and growing economies like Ethiopia and Somalia.

Turkey has become a major economic player in Ethiopia, with over 200 Turkish companies investing in sectors that employ more than 20,000 Ethiopians. Total Turkish investments in Ethiopia surpass $2 billion, with completed projects numbering 13. Bilateral trade reached $398.8 million in 2019, despite a dip to $272 million in 2020. Turkey also provides significant educational support, offering scholarships to 632 Ethiopian students as of 2020.

Similarly, Turkey has deepened its relationship with Somalia, with ties dating back to the Ottoman Empire. The Turkish Embassy in Mogadishu, initially inaugurated in 1979, was closed in 1991 due to civil war and reopened in 2011. Following a historic visit by then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during Somalia’s 2011 drought, Turkey launched its largest international aid operation. Since then, Turkey’s humanitarian and technical development assistance to Somalia has exceeded $1 billion, funding projects in health, education, municipal services, and infrastructure.

Turkey’s largest embassy complex globally was inaugurated in Mogadishu in 2016, underscoring the significance of its engagement. Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) made multiple visits to Turkey, participating in key conferences and strengthening bilateral relations. Turkish investments in Somalia total $100 million, with Turkish companies operating Mogadishu’s international airport and seaport. Bilateral trade reached $250.85 million in 2019, and 1,092 Somali students have benefited from Turkish scholarships since 1992.

Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Eritrea date back to 1993, with both nations working together on political and economic matters. In 2013, Turkey opened an embassy in Asmara, and the Turkish Airlines started direct flights to Eritrea’s capital in 2014. Trade between the two countries, including exports such as electrical goods and food products, reached a volume of 10 million USD in 2020. Turkey has also supported Eritrean students through scholarships, providing 132 opportunities since 1992. High-level visits between the two nations, such as the 2011 visit by Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Mohammed Saleh to Turkey and the 2012 visit of Turkey’s former Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu to Asmara, have further strengthened their bilateral relations.

Djibouti and Turkey have maintained diplomatic relations since 1977, with mutual embassies established in 2012 and 2013. Relations between the two countries have steadily grown across political, economic, and commercial fields. High-level visits, such as those by Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh to Turkey and reciprocal visits by Turkish officials, have solidified their partnership. Notable collaborations include the construction of the Ambouli Friendship Dam and the II. Abdülhamit Han Mosque, which symbolize the deepening friendship between the two nations. Bilateral trade has also grown, with trade volume increasing from 197 million USD in 2018 to 252 million USD in 2019. Furthermore, Turkey has extended educational opportunities to Djiboutian students through the Türkiye Scholarships Program, providing 243 scholarships since 1992.

Sudan has long been an important partner for Turkey, with diplomatic relations dating back to Sudan’s independence in 1956. The historical, cultural, and religious ties between the two nations have fostered steady cooperation. A major milestone in their bilateral relations was the 2017 visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Sudan, where 12 agreements were signed, including one to establish a High-Level Strategic Cooperation mechanism. Turkish investments in Sudan have reached 600 million USD, with exports amounting to 375 million USD in 2020. Turkish companies in Sudan are involved in various sectors, including steel, cement, and manufacturing. Additionally, the Turkish International Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) has been active in Sudan, contributing to both development and humanitarian projects. Through these efforts, Turkey continues to play a significant role in Sudan’s economic growth and regional stability.

Turkey’s economic strategy in the region is designed to create long-term partnerships that serve both its commercial interests and its broader geopolitical goals. By investing in infrastructure, trade, and development, Turkey aims to foster mutual growth, while securing access to key markets and resources.

Through these economic partnerships, Turkey has positioned itself as an alternative to traditional powers in the region, offering financial and technical assistance without the political and economic conditionality that often accompanies aid from Western countries. This approach has allowed Turkey to establish goodwill among regional leaders, creating a solid foundation for future economic and political cooperation.

Soft Power Diplomacy and Humanitarian Assistance
Another key component of Turkey’s strategy in the Horn of Africa is its use of soft power diplomacy, which includes cultural outreach, humanitarian assistance, and public diplomacy. Turkey has recognized that in order to expand its influence in the region, it must go beyond military and economic engagement and build positive relationships with local populations.

Turkey’s humanitarian assistance plays a central role in this regard. Turkish aid agencies, such as the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) and the Turkish Red Crescent, have provided critical humanitarian support to countries in the Horn of Africa. In Somalia, Turkey has been a major donor of food, medical supplies, and shelter for displaced persons affected by the ongoing conflict and droughts. Similarly, in Ethiopia, Turkey has provided emergency assistance to civilians impacted by the Tigray genocidal war despite its involvement in the war by supplying drones.

Turkey’s cultural diplomacy is another avenue through which it extends its influence in the region. The Yunus Emre Institute, which promotes Turkish language and culture, has opened cultural centers in several African countries, including Ethiopia and Somalia. These centers provide a platform for cultural exchange, language courses, and academic programs, fostering deeper ties between Turkey and the peoples of the Horn of Africa. Additionally, Turkish media, including television dramas, has gained widespread popularity in the region, contributing to Turkey’s positive image and expanding its cultural footprint.

Strategic Importance of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean
The Horn of Africa’s strategic location along the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait makes it a vital area for global maritime trade and security. These waterways serve as key conduits for oil shipments, goods, and military movements between the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. For Turkey, securing access to these maritime routes and enhancing its influence in the region is of paramount importance. The Red Sea is not only a critical trade route but also a zone of increasing geopolitical competition, with major powers like the United States, China, and Saudi Arabia vying for influence.

Turkey’s involvement in port development in the Horn of Africa reflects its desire to secure access to these crucial shipping lanes. In Somalia, Turkey has been involved in the development of the Berbera port, a key facility located near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which serves as a gateway for trade between the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Turkey has also invested in the development of the Port of Djibouti, further cementing its influence over one of the most strategic locations in the world.

Further, Turkey has increasingly positioned itself as a key mediator in the Horn of Africa, particularly in the volatile relationships between Somalia and Ethiopia through the Ankara Declaration. Leveraging its historical ties and its growing influence in the Horn of Africa, Turkey has fostered dialogue between Somalia and Ethiopia to ease tensions and promote regional stability. These mediation efforts align with Turkey’s broader foreign policy objectives of establishing a foothold in critical geopolitical regions, ensuring access to maritime trade routes, and fostering economic and military cooperation. Further, in Sudan, Turkey’s involvement in mediation underscores its desire to expand its influence in Africa while addressing regional security challenges that threaten the stability of the Red Sea corridor. This approach serves its broader goal of securing a role in shaping the future of the region, where access to strategic ports and influence over maritime routes along the Red Sea are of paramount importance.

By expanding its military, economic, and humanitarian presence in the Horn of Africa, Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in the region’s security and economic future. Its growing influence along the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean offers Turkey an opportunity to expand its regional and global leverage, while simultaneously securing access to vital resources and trade routes.

The Future of Türkiye’s Role in the Horn of Africa

Turkey’s strategic pivot to the Horn of Africa underscores its ambitions to be a dominant player on the global stage. Through military engagements, economic investments, and soft power diplomacy, Turkey has carved out a significant role in shaping the region’s future. However, its involvement, particularly in genocidal wars such as in Tigray, tarnishes its image as a responsible global actor. As Turkey continues to expand its influence, the success of its approach will depend on its ability to balance national interests with the need for genuine peace and stability in the region. The Horn of Africa, as a crossroads of global trade and geopolitical competition, remains a critical test of Turkey’s aspirations and the broader implications of its foreign policy.

Tigray plays a pivotal role in the strategic landscape of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Its proximity to Eritrea and the Red Sea positions it as a critical gateway for Ethiopia and a region of interest for external powers seeking access to maritime routes. Historically a center of resistance and resilience, Tigray’s significance extends beyond geography, as its stability—or instability—can profoundly influence the region’s security dynamics. For actors like Turkey, fostering stability in Tigray could enhance broader efforts to secure the Red Sea and Indian Ocean corridors, highlighting the need for inclusive and balanced approaches to peacebuilding and economic integration in the Horn of Africa.

Looking ahead, Turkey’s role in the Horn of Africa will continue to evolve as it navigates the complexities of regional geopolitics, balancing its strategic ambitions with the need to maintain positive relationships with local populations and international stakeholders. As the region’s economic potential continues to grow and its security challenges persist, Turkey’s influence in the Horn of Africa is likely to become an even more significant aspect of its foreign policy. Ultimately, how Turkey manages its relationships in the Horn of Africa will have lasting implications not only for the region but for Turkey’s broader geopolitical strategy on the global stage.

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Batseba Seifu holds a Master’s in Public Administration from NYU and a BA in Law and Justice, with specialised training in humanitarian law and displacement. With over a decade of public service experience, including managing e-learning programs for Peace and Security in Africa, she is dedicated to advocacy, research, and policy influence, particularly on the plight of Tigray.