By Batseba Seifu
National Peace Commitments
Ethiopia’s signature on the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) on 2 November 2022 was celebrated as a turning point, an end to aerial bombardment and mass atrocities, and the beginning of a political process that would restore constitutional order to Tigray. On paper, the agreement promised a permanent cessation of hostilities, the restoration of services, unfettered humanitarian access, and a framework for transitional justice (full text, IGAD PDF; see also AU communiqué on the signing’s significance for “silencing the guns” AU/Peace and Security Council press note). In practice, Tigrayans experienced what many describe as negative peace: the frontlines quieted, but the core guarantees of safety, accountability, and dignified recovery lagged.
Analyses from the LSE Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa chronicled this disjuncture, describing “broken promises and unfulfilled hope” as humanitarian access, displacement, and accountability trailed far behind expectations, and as survivors continued to report abuses and obstruction (LSE Africa blog). UN human rights authorities likewise urged concrete measures to halt ongoing violations and deliver credible justice after the agreement, underscoring that policy pledges had not translated into reliable protection for civilians (OHCHR statement, 14 June 2024; see also OHCHR’s 2023 country update on Ethiopia’s rights situation PDF).
For Tigrayans, the heart of the gap is accountability and security. Independent documentation in 2024–2025 continued to report conflict-related sexual and reproductive violence and the persistence of impunity, evidence that the violence did not simply stop at the signing table. A significant study by Physicians for Human Rights and partners concluded that the scale and pattern of sexual violence by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces amount to crimes against humanity and possibly genocide, and that abuses continued after the 2022 ceasefire (PHR report summary; news coverage: The Guardian). Credible monitors also reported that Eritrean forces remained implicated in serious abuses in parts of Tigray well into 2024–2025, contradicting the spirit of the CoHA and deepening fear among civilians (see HRW World Reports: 2024 and 2025).
International Peacekeeping Vs. Domestic Reality
Internationally, Ethiopia presents itself as a pillar of regional security, notably through its long-standing troop contributions to AU peace operations in Somalia under AMISOM/ATMIS. The AU publicly recognized Ethiopian contingents for their contributions as recently as December 2024 (ATMIS release).
Yet the regional peacekeeping narrative grew entangled with geopolitics amid disputes over Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland. Somali officials indicated Ethiopia could be excluded from the post-ATMIS mission, even threatening expulsion of Ethiopian forces unless the port deal was scrapped (Reuters).
Parallel analyses described negotiations around a successor mission (often referenced as AUSSOM) and Ethiopia’s efforts to shape the transition, underscoring a fluid and contested security landscape (Amani Africa brief, news analysis).
This paradox is glaring when Tigray is considered: International advocacy groups note persistent impunity for grave crimes in Tigray and the shuttering or sidelining of independent investigative mechanisms, moves that undercut confidence in national processes promised under the CoHA (HRW joint UPR submission; OHCHR update).
For survivors, this contradiction, peacekeeping abroad, unfinished peace at home, reinforces the perception that Ethiopia’s flawed security diplomacy outpaces its domestic obligations to Tigrayan civilians.
The Road Ahead for Tigray
A credible peace process now demands measurable steps that Tigrayan communities can see, feel, and verify and should consider the following relevant steps.
Security Guarantees: Independent verification that foreign and allied forces implicated in abuses are withdrawn from Tigray, coupled with enforceable safeguards for civilians and humanitarian corridors. Public, third-party verification (AU, UN or mutually agreed neutral monitors) should be embedded into CoHA follow-through (CoHA text; LSE analysis; HRW Eritrea chapters 2024–2025).
Survivor-Centred Justice and Reparations: Implement a time-bound, independent accountability track that meets international standards, protecting witnesses, enabling external forensic support, and guaranteeing medical, psychosocial, and economic reparations. The recent medical evidence base from Physicians for Human Rights underscores both the scale of harm and the urgency of comprehensive survivor services (PHR report; The Guardian).
Humanitarian Access & Reconstruction as Rights: Full restoration of services (healthcare, banking, communications, education) and unimpeded humanitarian access are not discretionary favors; they are obligations under the agreement and international law. Regular public dashboards led by neutral agencies could track delivery, access constraints, and beneficiary reach (OHCHR).
Depoliticizing Regional Security Theatre: Ethiopia’s role in Somalia and post-ATMIS architectures should not eclipse its duty to consolidate peace domestically. Regional credibility is inseparable from verifiable compliance with Pretoria’s commitments in Tigray, including protection from reprisals and safe return for displaced communities (ATMIS note of troop contributions; Reuters).
For Tigrayans, peace is not abstract. It means walking to school without fear, accessing clinics stocked with post-rape care, tracing the disappeared, seeing perpetrators prosecuted, and rebuilding livelihoods with dignified support. The Pretoria Agreement remains a necessary foundation, but its promise will be measured by withdrawals verified, trials conducted, survivors treated, and rights restored. Until those benchmarks are met, Ethiopia’s national and international peace narratives will continue to diverge, and Tigray will continue to live in the gap between what was signed and what is delivered.
Post Views: 1,703
Like this:
Like Loading...
Related
Ethiopia’s Broken Peace: Signatures, Soldiers, and the Struggle for Justice in Tigray
By Batseba Seifu
National Peace Commitments
Ethiopia’s signature on the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) on 2 November 2022 was celebrated as a turning point, an end to aerial bombardment and mass atrocities, and the beginning of a political process that would restore constitutional order to Tigray. On paper, the agreement promised a permanent cessation of hostilities, the restoration of services, unfettered humanitarian access, and a framework for transitional justice (full text, IGAD PDF; see also AU communiqué on the signing’s significance for “silencing the guns” AU/Peace and Security Council press note). In practice, Tigrayans experienced what many describe as negative peace: the frontlines quieted, but the core guarantees of safety, accountability, and dignified recovery lagged.
Analyses from the LSE Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa chronicled this disjuncture, describing “broken promises and unfulfilled hope” as humanitarian access, displacement, and accountability trailed far behind expectations, and as survivors continued to report abuses and obstruction (LSE Africa blog). UN human rights authorities likewise urged concrete measures to halt ongoing violations and deliver credible justice after the agreement, underscoring that policy pledges had not translated into reliable protection for civilians (OHCHR statement, 14 June 2024; see also OHCHR’s 2023 country update on Ethiopia’s rights situation PDF).
For Tigrayans, the heart of the gap is accountability and security. Independent documentation in 2024–2025 continued to report conflict-related sexual and reproductive violence and the persistence of impunity, evidence that the violence did not simply stop at the signing table. A significant study by Physicians for Human Rights and partners concluded that the scale and pattern of sexual violence by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces amount to crimes against humanity and possibly genocide, and that abuses continued after the 2022 ceasefire (PHR report summary; news coverage: The Guardian). Credible monitors also reported that Eritrean forces remained implicated in serious abuses in parts of Tigray well into 2024–2025, contradicting the spirit of the CoHA and deepening fear among civilians (see HRW World Reports: 2024 and 2025).
International Peacekeeping Vs. Domestic Reality
Internationally, Ethiopia presents itself as a pillar of regional security, notably through its long-standing troop contributions to AU peace operations in Somalia under AMISOM/ATMIS. The AU publicly recognized Ethiopian contingents for their contributions as recently as December 2024 (ATMIS release).
Yet the regional peacekeeping narrative grew entangled with geopolitics amid disputes over Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland. Somali officials indicated Ethiopia could be excluded from the post-ATMIS mission, even threatening expulsion of Ethiopian forces unless the port deal was scrapped (Reuters).
Parallel analyses described negotiations around a successor mission (often referenced as AUSSOM) and Ethiopia’s efforts to shape the transition, underscoring a fluid and contested security landscape (Amani Africa brief, news analysis).
This paradox is glaring when Tigray is considered: International advocacy groups note persistent impunity for grave crimes in Tigray and the shuttering or sidelining of independent investigative mechanisms, moves that undercut confidence in national processes promised under the CoHA (HRW joint UPR submission; OHCHR update).
For survivors, this contradiction, peacekeeping abroad, unfinished peace at home, reinforces the perception that Ethiopia’s flawed security diplomacy outpaces its domestic obligations to Tigrayan civilians.
The Road Ahead for Tigray
A credible peace process now demands measurable steps that Tigrayan communities can see, feel, and verify and should consider the following relevant steps.
Security Guarantees: Independent verification that foreign and allied forces implicated in abuses are withdrawn from Tigray, coupled with enforceable safeguards for civilians and humanitarian corridors. Public, third-party verification (AU, UN or mutually agreed neutral monitors) should be embedded into CoHA follow-through (CoHA text; LSE analysis; HRW Eritrea chapters 2024–2025).
Survivor-Centred Justice and Reparations: Implement a time-bound, independent accountability track that meets international standards, protecting witnesses, enabling external forensic support, and guaranteeing medical, psychosocial, and economic reparations. The recent medical evidence base from Physicians for Human Rights underscores both the scale of harm and the urgency of comprehensive survivor services (PHR report; The Guardian).
Humanitarian Access & Reconstruction as Rights: Full restoration of services (healthcare, banking, communications, education) and unimpeded humanitarian access are not discretionary favors; they are obligations under the agreement and international law. Regular public dashboards led by neutral agencies could track delivery, access constraints, and beneficiary reach (OHCHR).
Depoliticizing Regional Security Theatre: Ethiopia’s role in Somalia and post-ATMIS architectures should not eclipse its duty to consolidate peace domestically. Regional credibility is inseparable from verifiable compliance with Pretoria’s commitments in Tigray, including protection from reprisals and safe return for displaced communities (ATMIS note of troop contributions; Reuters).
For Tigrayans, peace is not abstract. It means walking to school without fear, accessing clinics stocked with post-rape care, tracing the disappeared, seeing perpetrators prosecuted, and rebuilding livelihoods with dignified support. The Pretoria Agreement remains a necessary foundation, but its promise will be measured by withdrawals verified, trials conducted, survivors treated, and rights restored. Until those benchmarks are met, Ethiopia’s national and international peace narratives will continue to diverge, and Tigray will continue to live in the gap between what was signed and what is delivered.
Share this:
Like this:
Related